Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States will have a positive outcome on Israeli interests, several experts interviewed by AFP said on Wednesday.
Still, some were cautiously optimistic at the prospect of a second Trump term, given his unpredictability during his first term from 2017 to 2021, particularly when it came to foreign policy.
Why such enthusiasm over Trump’s win?
Former president Trump favoured Israel many times in his first term, and Israeli leaders were among the first to congratulate him on Wednesday as soon as he claimed victory.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Trump over “history’s greatest comeback!”, and newly appointed foreign affairs minister Gideon Saar hailed him as a “true friend of Israel”.
Opinion polls showed that 66 percent of Israelis wanted Trump back in power, with pundits pointing to his family ties to Israel and his daughter’s conversion to Judaism.
During his first term, Trump broke the historic US policy of neutrality over the status of Jerusalem, whose eastern half has been occupied by Israel since 1967.
As early as 2017, he recognised the city as Israel’s capital and the following year moved the American embassy there.
Trump also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, the strategic northern region annexed by Israel in 1967 and which the international community views as Syrian territory.
Trump’s government also said it did not view Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal, despite international law saying they are.
Lastly, American diplomats in Trump’s first administration largely facilitated the normalisation of Israeli ties with more Arab states, which Israelis view as a way of securing their country’s future.
What do Israelis expect from him?
With Israel at war for more than a year and amid several diplomatic setbacks, “Trump’s win is a big emboldening for Netanyahu”, according to Mairav Zonszein, an expert at the International Crisis Group, pointing to the two leaders’ similar political style.
She added that the result was hailed by the “far right and the settler right in Israel”, who expect a US policy that is more favourable to settlers in the West Bank.
Analysts noted that Trump will favour Israel’s interests on the international scene.
“Considering what he said and what he’s done before, we expect him to be tougher on Iran,” said international relations expert Yonatan Freeman of Jerusalem’s Hebrew University.
Freeman predicted new talks with Iran pushing “for a better deal for Israel’s security”, enabled by the new American president.
Several experts pointed to the issue of US military support. President Joe Biden waved this as a potential pressure point in Gaza war ceasefire talks, but it would no longer be a threat under Trump.
What are the main challenges?
“It is sometimes preferable to deal with predictable people even if we don’t really like them, rather than unpredictable people,”, Yossi Mekelberg, an expert on Israeli geopolitics at Chatham House, told AFP.
Mekelberg pointed to past disputes between Trump and Netanyahu, including in 2020 when Trump saw Netanyahu’s congratulations to Biden on winning the election as a betrayal.
Trump’s statements since then have sometimes seemed contradictory, between his support for Israel and his wish for an end to the war in Gaza, despite overtures from Netanyahu.
In July, both men met when the Israeli prime minister visited the United States, suggesting that the two may have patched things up.
“You can’t really analyse someone that has no coherent line of thinking,” Mekelberg concluded.
Zonszein said some Israeli leaders appear to have prematurely decided on Trump’s position on “Israel’s treatment of Palestinians”.
“It’s not necessarily clear that he would kind of just stand aside while Israel continues to de facto annex the West Bank”, she said, pointing to his past opposition to aspects of Israel’s annexation plan and his support for the Abraham Accords.
The 2020 Abraham Accords saw Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates establish formal ties with Israel.
Because of strategic alliances and diplomatic dynamics, “it’s not at all certain that Trump will be happy to support Israel’s war on all fronts”, Zonszein said.
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