The U.S. presidential election is going down to the wire, with polls showing a deadlocked race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
Trump’s favorability rating is stuck at 43 per cent, and he has never topped 50 per cent since leaving office. This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and may struggle to win the national popular vote.
There are 4 important issues when it comes to the deciding factor. The economy, immigration and border control, abortion issues and safeguarding democracy.
The country is in a bad mood, with 60-70 per cent of Americans believing the country is on the wrong track which means the election will change. Historically, when Americans feel the country is on the wrong track, the incumbent president tends to lose favor, giving their challenger a significant advantage in the election and Harris is facing this blow.
Trump is seen as the better candidate to manage the economy, leading by a 15-point margin in swing states, since during the Biden administration, the cost has risen between 10-40 per cent.
Trump has made immigration a central issue, and voters view him as the best candidate to manage the border. The first three years of Biden’s term saw immigration troubles, however the rates have fallen now.
Harris is seen as the champion of reproductive rights, and polling shows her leading Trump among women voters in swing states by 15 points or more. Abortion rights are decided at the state level and it is on the ballot in two key swing states – Nevada and Arizona which is a positive aspect for Harris.
Half the country sees Trump as a threat to American democracy, an authoritarian, while Harris has pledged to unite the country and even get the Republicans and Democrats working.
If Harris wins, it will be because she has successfully sealed the deal with voters and made the election a referendum on Trump. Her ground game, which includes a USD 1 billion machine to reach voters in swing states, will be crucial.
If Trump wins, it will mean voters trusted him to manage inflation, immigration, and crime. Unease about Harris, a Black and South Asian woman, as president may also play a role.
The outcome is far from certain, and the next 24 hours will be intense. Will Harris’ ground game deliver, or will Trump’s economic message resonate with voters? The country holds its breath as it waits for the results.
