The Americans have a huge responsibility. They will be making a choice that could affect not only the United States, but the entire world in innumerable ways. The outcome would have wide-ranging implications through multiple layers in the fabric of the world economy, conflict, markets and more. Here’s a breakdown of what the election results would mean for various parts of the world.
Israel-Gaza War.
According to the Israel Democracy Institute survey, almost 65 per cent of Israelis support Republican Donald Trump while only 13 per cent want to see Democrat Kamala Harris as the POTUS. Israelis have grown increasingly opposed to the Palestinian statehood or a two-state solution and they now believe Trump can offer more support against Iran and Iran backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, even though Harris and Trump both consider Iran to be an adversary for the US.
Russia-Ukraine War
Trump says, “They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done – I’ll have that done in 24 hours.” This statement makes the Ukrainians nervous as they think Trump will come to a quick solution favourable to Russia as he has openly admired President Vladimir Putin on various accounts saying the invasion of Ukraine was “genius” and “savvy” and that Putin, Xi and Kim Jong Un are at the “top of their game”. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political analyst says, “Trump could very unpredictably take a stance that completely blocks aid to Ukraine, or he could just as unpredictably decide to provide Ukraine with support that neither Joseph Biden nor Kamala Harris would ever consider, according to the New York Times. Regardless, Harris has said that she will stand by Kyiv and NATO allies, until “Ukraine prevails in this war”.
China
The 2024 presidential election is a high stakes affair for China. It doesn’t matter who wins, both candidates will maintain a tough stance on the nation. Trump has proposed blanket tariffs on China’s exports which will quite likely maim the Chinese economy with China specific tariffs at 60 per cent or more, as they are heavily reliant on foreign demand especially from the United States. Speaking of the second most important aspect for China – Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy experts feel that a Trump administration will be less interested in defending Taiwan or pressure by the US to maintain alliances with the neighbours. However, a Harris administration is likely to continue these efforts.
Europe
If Trump wins, the euro might lose its strength as he is planning on imposing 10-20 per cent on cross-border tariffs. Zach Meyers, the assistant director of the Centre for European Reform told Fortune that “Tariffs will seriously dampen the EU’s economic growth”. On top of that, Trump has also spoken about leaving NATO. Since Harris has promised her unwavering support for Ukraine and NATO, her coming to power is seen as the brighter side of the election outcome.
The US elections are currently the biggest and most important event and the world awaits the results eagerly.
